Why Vietnam-China Economic and Defense Cooperation is Dangerous for Indonesia and Asia
The growing cooperation between Vietnam and China, particularly in economic and defense sectors, raises significant concerns for Indonesia and the broader region. While cooperation between nations can often lead to mutual benefits, the complexities of the geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia make this partnership particularly risky for several reasons.
1. Undermining Regional Balance of Power
China’s aggressive stance in the South China Sea has been a longstanding issue, particularly for Southeast Asian nations like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. While Vietnam has historically been a vocal critic of China’s claims, a strategic pivot towards cooperation could signal a shift in the regional balance of power. If Vietnam, a former opponent of China’s maritime assertiveness, aligns its defense and economic strategies more closely with Beijing, this could weaken ASEAN’s collective bargaining position and embolden Chinese expansionism in disputed waters. For Indonesia, which maintains a policy of neutrality but is staunchly protective of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), this partnership could undermine its security interests.
2. Economic Dependence on China
Vietnam’s increasing economic ties with China could potentially make it overly dependent on Beijing, similar to how other countries have found themselves influenced by China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This dependence might force Vietnam to compromise on important regional issues, including maritime sovereignty disputes. If Vietnam starts leaning on China economically, its ability to push back against Chinese overreach in the South China Sea could be diminished. For Indonesia, which shares concerns over China’s encroachment into its Natuna waters, a weakened Vietnam in this area would reduce Indonesia’s allies in its struggle to defend its maritime boundaries.
3. Strengthening China’s Military Influence in the Region
China’s defense cooperation with Vietnam could significantly boost China’s military influence in Southeast Asia, a region where many countries, including Indonesia, are wary of Beijing’s ambitions. Vietnam’s defense partnership with China could shift military dynamics and give China greater leverage in ASEAN’s decision-making on regional security issues. If Vietnam, with its robust military capabilities, starts collaborating more closely with China, it could challenge Indonesia’s role as a leading voice for regional security, potentially sidelining Jakarta’s concerns and diminishing its influence in ASEAN.
4. Threat to ASEAN Unity
ASEAN has long prided itself on regional unity and its ability to resolve disputes through consensus. However, deepening ties between China and Vietnam could fracture this unity, as other Southeast Asian nations may be left to deal with Chinese influence on their own. Indonesia, which values ASEAN’s cohesion as a cornerstone of its foreign policy, could find it increasingly difficult to navigate regional diplomacy if Vietnam begins aligning its policies with China’s interests, particularly on contentious issues like the South China Sea.
5. Potential for Military Escalation
China’s growing military presence in the South China Sea has already heightened tensions in the region. If Vietnam, with its strategic geographic location, allows greater Chinese military cooperation, this could increase the risk of military escalation. For Indonesia, which shares maritime boundaries in the region, this is a significant threat. Any increase in military activities in the region, whether through joint exercises or shared defense technologies, could destabilize the security environment, forcing Indonesia and other ASEAN members to reassess their defense strategies and potentially escalate their own military presence in response.
The potential dangers of deepened Vietnam-China cooperation cannot be understated for Indonesia and the broader region. A shift in Vietnam’s strategic alignment toward China could tip the balance of power in Southeast Asia, weaken ASEAN unity, and undermine efforts to maintain a rules-based order in the South China Sea. For Indonesia, vigilance and strategic diplomacy are crucial to navigate this evolving regional landscape and safeguard its national interests.
