President Prabowo’s Visit to China Amid Growing Chinese Aggression
President Prabowo Subianto is set to make his inaugural state visit to China, a move that has raised eyebrows domestically and regionally given the intensifying geopolitical challenges in the Indo-Pacific region. While strengthening diplomatic ties with China is often portrayed as a pragmatic choice, many Indonesians are wary of the visit, particularly given China’s controversial actions and ambitions in Southeast Asia.
Indonesia’s Geopolitical Challenges with China
Indonesia has historically maintained a balanced approach, steering clear of entangling alliances while promoting its national interests. However, China’s increasingly assertive behavior, especially in the South China Sea, has cast a shadow over relations. Chinese coast guard ships and fishing vessels have regularly entered Indonesian waters, specifically around the Natuna Islands, a region that is integral to Indonesia’s sovereignty and economic interests. The illegal presence of Chinese vessels in Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) has sparked protests and called into question China’s respect for Indonesia’s territorial integrity.
Many Indonesians believe that Prabowo’s visit may inadvertently signal an acceptance of China’s encroachment, which would be contrary to Indonesia’s national interests. Strengthening ties with a country that routinely disregards Indonesia’s territorial rights could be perceived as a strategic error, especially given the need for strong regional coalitions against any form of territorial aggression.
Concerns Over Economic Dependency
China has become a major trade partner and investor in Indonesia, particularly in infrastructure projects through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, critics argue that China’s investments come with high economic and political costs.
Many BRI projects are funded through loans that could increase Indonesia’s debt burden, potentially placing the country in a position of dependency. Additionally, Chinese-funded projects in Indonesia have been criticized for prioritizing Chinese labor and resources, offering limited benefits to the local economy.
As Prabowo prepares to meet with Chinese officials, there are concerns that Indonesia may fall further into economic dependence on China, jeopardizing its long-term economic sovereignty. Increasing reliance on Chinese investment could undermine Indonesia’s capacity to make autonomous policy decisions and create vulnerabilities that could be exploited by Beijing.
Regional Security and the Risk of Aligning with China
In the broader context of regional security, aligning closely with China could weaken Indonesia’s credibility as a neutral and independent actor in Southeast Asia. Many ASEAN members, including Vietnam and the Philippines, have been vocal about their own disputes with China.
A strong Indonesian stance in favor of sovereignty would resonate across Southeast Asia and bolster regional unity against external pressures. However, an alignment with China could alienate regional allies, weakening collective efforts to maintain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
Moreover, Indonesia’s strategic partnership with democratic nations, including the United States, Japan, and Australia, has been built on shared values of sovereignty, freedom of navigation, and economic cooperation. While Prabowo’s visit to China could be seen as a pragmatic diplomatic gesture, closer ties with an authoritarian regime may complicate these relationships, raising questions about Indonesia’s commitment to these core principles.
Public Sentiment and National Concerns
Many Indonesians feel uneasy about strengthening ties with China, especially considering public opinion polls that reveal growing mistrust toward Beijing. Recent incidents, such as China’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and reports of human rights abuses against Uyghurs, have heightened skepticism about China’s intentions. For Prabowo, ignoring these sentiments could damage his domestic credibility and raise questions about his prioritization of national interests.
Looking ahead
Prabowo’s state visit to China may have strategic motivations, but it is fraught with potential pitfalls. By engaging with a country known for its aggressive territorial claims, Indonesia risks weakening its regional influence and compromising its economic and political independence.
For Indonesia to protect its sovereignty and align with allies who share its vision for a free and peaceful Indo-Pacific, Prabowo must proceed with extreme caution, ensuring that Indonesia’s national interests remain at the forefront of its foreign policy and that China is not allowed to bully its neighbours.
