The South China Sea is rich in natural resources and strategically important, leading to territorial sovereignty disputes between countries such as China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. After World War II, China initially marked the “11-dash line” aside from the Kuomintang and later revised it to the “9-dash line”. These bold and unsubstantiated claims sparked a series of conflicts, including military actions in 1974, 1988, and 1995, which led to intense political opposition from ASEAN.
UNCLOS provides a framework for maritime activities and stipulates that the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) extends 200 nautical miles from a country’s baselines. Although China has signed and ratified UNCLOS, it continues to assert its “historic rights” contrary to international law. In 2002, ASEAN and China signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, in which they committed to the peaceful settlement of disputes under international law. However, China’s recent actions, which include violent clashes and provocations, seriously undermine this commitment.
Indonesia, a non-direct party to the territorial claims dispute, has demonstrated its resilience by standing up to China over fishing rights in the Natuna Islands. Despite China’s repeated illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing in Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone, Indonesia has remained steadfast, protecting not only marine resources but also regional food security. In 2016, Indonesia’s firm response to China’s ‘grey zone strategy’, which involved massive illegal fishing in Natuna waters, underscored the country’s unwavering determination to safeguard its EEZ.
Indonesia adopted strict regulations, such as criminalizing illegal fishing under Law No. 45/2009 on Fisheries, and renamed its EEZ the “North Natuna Sea” to assert its sovereignty. In addition, the Task Force on Eradication of Illegal Fishing, established in 2015, is strengthening enforcement against IUU fishing.
Indonesia also plays a vital role within ASEAN, promoting regional stability and having advanced negotiations with China on the Code of Conduct (COC).
However, Indonesia faces a dependency dilemma due to its significant economic ties to China, exacerbated by China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This financial dependence complicates Indonesia’s ability to take decisive action in the South China Sea dispute and reinforces Chinese aggression.
As President-elect Prabowo Subianto prepares to take office in October 2024, he should consider several factors in shaping Indonesia’s strategy. These include resolving the conflicting objectives of the parties to the conflict, strengthening military capabilities to protect territorial waters, and continuing to mediate the South China Sea dispute as we face serious challenges.
Moreover, by reducing economic dependence on China through diversification and the development of strategic infrastructure with other countries, Indonesia cannot only increase its economic resilience but also open up new avenues for growth and development, as recommended by many economic experts.
By implementing these strategies, Indonesia can effectively resolve the South China Sea dispute while promoting economic stability, regional cooperation, and resistance to Chinese aggression.
