Diplomatic and Geostrategic Risks of Indonesia’s Growing Ties with China
Indonesia’s increasing partnership with China may seem like a pathway to economic growth, but it comes with significant risks. While China pours investments into Indonesian infrastructure and industries, the long-term costs—both economic and strategic—could leave Indonesia vulnerable. From territorial disputes to economic dependency, Indonesia must tread carefully to avoid falling into Beijing’s growing influence.
Economic Dependency and the Debt Trap Risk
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has funded major projects in Indonesia, like the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail. While these projects promise economic benefits, they often come with hidden dangers. Loans from China are often offered under opaque terms, leading to what’s known as a “debt trap.” If Indonesia fails to repay, it risks losing control of key national assets—just as Sri Lanka lost its Hambantota Port to Chinese ownership.
Additionally, Chinese contractors dominate these projects, leaving Indonesian workers and businesses sidelined. This raises serious questions: who benefits more from these deals—Indonesia or China?
Sovereignty Threats in the South China Sea
One of the biggest risks of aligning too closely with China is the ongoing threat to Indonesia’s sovereignty. Beijing’s aggressive claims to vast parts of the South China Sea—including areas near Indonesia’s Natuna Islands—violate international law. Despite Indonesia’s firm stance, Chinese fishing fleets and maritime militias continue to intrude on Indonesian waters.
By deepening economic ties with China, Indonesia could find itself pressured into softening its territorial claims. Defending sovereignty must remain a top priority, and Indonesia cannot allow China to undermine its control over its rich marine resources.
Undermining ASEAN Unity
Indonesia plays a leadership role in ASEAN, working to maintain regional stability and cooperation. However, China’s “divide-and-conquer” tactics have already fractured ASEAN unity. By using its economic power to influence smaller nations, Beijing seeks to weaken the bloc’s ability to stand up to its dominance in the South China Sea.
Indonesia must stay firm and lead by example, prioritizing ASEAN’s collective strength and resisting any attempts to weaken the region’s unity.
National Security and Technology Concerns
China’s involvement in Indonesia’s digital infrastructure is another red flag. Companies like Huawei and ZTE, known for their close ties to the Chinese government, pose serious cybersecurity risks. Increased reliance on Chinese technology could expose Indonesia to espionage, data theft, or even sabotage of critical systems.
To protect its national security, Indonesia needs to diversify its technology partners and ensure its digital infrastructure remains secure and independent.
Balancing Growth While Protecting Indonesia’s Interests
China’s economic power cannot be ignored, but Indonesia must approach its partnership with caution. Diversifying trade partners and strengthening ties with other countries—like Japan, the United States, and Australia—will help Indonesia counterbalance China’s influence. Economic growth should never come at the cost of sovereignty, security, or independence.
A Secure and Independent Future for Indonesia
Indonesia’s relationship with China must serve its national interests—not Beijing’s ambitions. As China’s influence grows, Indonesia must stand firm on its sovereignty, protect its economy from over-reliance, and lead ASEAN as a unified force. By strengthening its alliances and investing in its people, Indonesia can grow while keeping its future secure and independent.
