In February 2024, we elected Prabowo Subianto as our next president. Although he will take office in October, there’s already much speculation about Indonesia’s foreign policy. It is suggested that Prabowo could shift further away from the West than his predecessor, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. Alarmingly, his first foreign trip after the election was to China.
China has long sought to expand its influence at the expense of smaller, more vulnerable countries, and Indonesia is no exception. Despite this, Prabowo is unlikely to drastically change Indonesia’s position in the South China Sea, where China is aggressively encroaching on Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone. Indonesia has been strengthening its security in the region in recent years, especially around the Natuna Islands, where China frequently violates its sovereignty and international law. Prabowo, as a former defence minister, is likely to continue expanding military bases on these islands to improve Indonesia’s ability to monitor and respond to Chinese provocations.
Up until now, Indonesia has publicly minimized its maritime dispute with China, which was a significant mistake. China has taken advantage of this passivity and increased the number of violations of Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone. Chinese fishing boats, supported by Chinese coastguards, regularly plunder Indonesian waters. In 2014, China even published a new map that included parts of Indonesian territory, sparking considerable outrage among Indonesian defence officials.
General Moeldoko, then chief of the Indonesian armed forces, traveled to Beijing to privately express concern about China’s claims. He then publicly stated that Indonesia would reinforce its troops in the Natuna Islands. However, Indonesia had to demonstrate its resolve with occasional shows of force, such as seizing and destroying foreign fishing boats. These actions, however, continued Chinese intrusions. In 2016, there were several incidents between Chinese and Indonesian ships, leading Indonesia to launch large-scale military exercises over the Natuna Islands.
The 2016 incidents were a turning point for Indonesia. The Indonesian parliament began funding major upgrades to military facilities in the Natuna Islands. By 2018, Indonesia had established a new military presence on Great Natuna Island, the largest island in the Natuna archipelago. This presence includes units of Marines, combat engineers, and long-range missile systems, allowing Indonesia to protect its waters from Chinese aggression better.
Prabowo must decide between economic relations with China and Indonesia’s maritime interests. Prabowo will most likely prioritize protecting Indonesia’s sovereignty, as most world experts would recommend.
